The Tiger went into a cocoon and a dragon emerged, glistening, with great expectations for music in China. These are our thoughts about the lay of the land for the rest of 2012. Think of this done in a rocking chair, looking contemplatively at the horizon while freezing half to death in the grip of Beijing’s winter
Every year for the last 5 years we’ve reflected in the (relatively) mellow time that is the Western and Chinese New Year extended break and thought about how far we have come and how big the upcoming year is going to be. Every year, the number of shows, festivals, live houses and especially promoters seems to increase exponentially and this one looks no different, with one big, nay massive great caveat.
Opinion is almost equally divided on the lay of the entertainment industry in 2012. Some say that a second Cultural Revolution is underway, others say that this year of the Dragon will be the most open and interesting year for entertainment and music particularly. Our own view is somewhere between the two. There has been a recent series of unfortunate closures of live houses in 2nd and 3rd tier cities, licensing artists is getting harder and there is of course a handover of political power: Hu Jintao giving way to Xi Jinping at the 18th Congress. That’s going to go down in September and official confirmation will be sometime after, so it will be very interesting to see how the October festivals fare.
It is likely that Beijing will become a very hard place to do anything. We hope not, but if the Olympics and the 60th anniversary of the Communist party were any kind of benchmarks, Dragon year will be rather less fiery than we hope……
Which side of the fence do you come down on?